Circumstances

Steve and Cindy came over for dinner the other night, a little bit out of the blue, but I like that. I'm always happy to see them. They brought over some White Castle, to keep me out of the kitchen, so we could actually hang out.

Steve is interesting to me because he leans conservative, but without the dogmatic conviction in all of his positions that's typical of anyone with interest in politics, and especially typical of the modern GOP. i.e. You can reason with him, and it's notable, and makes you more willing to doubt your own positions, and I think this is great.

Steve had stated that he's against minimum wage hikes, for a few reasons. He talked about how giving a raise to everyone at the bottom means you have to push up the wages of everyone above them, who should be making more than them. I have no argument there, but pointed out that the cascade diminishes really quickly. i.e. bumping the wages of 10 people is the big hit, and bumping the wage of their 1 manager is a really minor effect.

He went on to talk about how minimum wage jobs are supposed to be for kids, and we talked about reasonable choices in terms of education and everything. Pressures to get 4 year degrees, and pressures to get the right ones to be able to get a good job out of school. The crippling debt that can come with all of that. The effect of automation, and high unemployment. The efficacy of labor strikes in such an environment. A bunch of stuff I'm happy to discuss, but don't want to get into too much right now.

I just wanted to call some attention to some biases that I feel like I run into all the time. I've been taking more of an interest in things like self-delusion recently. I listen to and enjoy the You Are Not So Smart podcast. I think learning about this kind of stuff is important to being a reasonable human being, which I think is something we should all aspire to.

When I hear people talk about other people having made poor choices about their educations, which leave them unemployable or under-employable, I can understand the idea, but there are so many ways things can go wrong, I'm hesitant to place much if any blame on anyone who has a hard time finding work.

Bad advice from counselors. Tech and industry shifts that outpace what you can reasonably plan for. New types of automation. Bad predictions on where markets are headed. Accident or injury. Financial stress that makes tougher degree programs unworkable. Lack of support.

It's really easy to end up well off and think it's no big deal, without properly attributing it to the tremendous amount of luck that was involved, and instead thinking it was your hard work or good choices that made it happen. One has to figure that, if it weren't a big deal, only a small minority wouldn't be well off. There's some just-world bias at play here.

By being born in the US, I've already won the lotto. Not being subject to starving and all sorts of diseases and oppression. Having access to all sorts of infrastructure that previous generations built and died for. Having enough leisure time to study my interests and develop my mind. I've won the lotto again and again. Having a mom who supported my college education and helped me with tuition, I could hardly have gotten more advantages.

But I think there are a lot of people who've gotten what I've gotten or more, but are under the impression that they did it all, and anyone who's not as well off as they are is there through their own faults.

Of all the biases I see, the ones that I feel I recognize the most often are the fundamental attribution error and actor-observer bias. Basically, like, when Crystal's driving and she thinks anyone who cuts her off is an asshole (fundamental attribution), but if she cuts someone else off, it's because she had a good reason for it, and she's not an asshole (actor-observer).

There are a lot of things related to this. These stories horrify me: The only moral abortion is my abortion.

Some people, when put under scrutiny, when you get to really know them, are, in fact, assholes. But I think if you take the time, you'll find that everyone's just trying their best, and I try to start with that assumption, until proven otherwise. We've all made mistakes, and will make more in the future.

I think just being aware of actor-observer bias probably makes you a better person, because you're better equipped to empathize, or at least less inclined not to empathize.

I think, "Everyone comes from circumstances," is a good mantra. At the same time, I think it has to be balanced with, "Your circumstances don't justify acting like an asshole."